Pharmaceutical filing citing Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology paper — Avalo Therapeutics, 2023-01-17
Avalo TherapeuticsAvalo TherapeuticsNASDAQ AVTX
Filings SEC · Quote Yahoo cited a paper published in the Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology as a basis for its claims in a regulatory filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange CommissionU.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
Regulator · Website. The company read the manner in which it wrote the paper and the scope the paper actually demonstrated in sequence. The stock price movement for one month after the filing was compared to past cases of the same type to determine its position. This is a retrospective judgment written after knowing the results. The paper was read only up to the abstract.
The disclosure wrote the paper in the press release like this
When a U.S. listed company has something to inform shareholders, the report submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission is called 8-K. The item numbers of the document submitted by Avalo Therapeutics on 2023-01-17 were 7.01 Reg FD Public · 8.01 Other Events · 9.01 Financial Statements·Attached Documents. The company cited the paper published in Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology in the attached press release. The sentence citing the paper, copied verbatim from the original, is as follows.
The sentence in the press release citing the paper could not be automatically found. Confirm it from the original link. Do not replace it with another paragraph.
What readers see first is where the company placed the paper in the press release. Next is determining whether the paper supports the entire company claim or only part of it. To answer the latter question, one must read the full paper. This article, which read only the abstract, cannot answer it.
The scope of the paper mentioned in the abstract is up to here.
The paper title is Lymphotoxin beta receptor signaling directly controls airway smooth muscle deregulation and asthmatic lung dysfunction and it was published in Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology on 2022-12-05. The authors' affiliations are La Jolla Institute for Immunology · University of San Diego · University of California San Diego · The University of Texas at San Antonio Health Science Center. The summary published at the beginning of the paper is called abstract. What this article read was only up to there. This paragraph was rewritten by a person after filtering a draft written by a machine reading the abstract by numerical comparison, so it is a different grade from a full-text reading and original judgment.
The abstract of this paper is not publicly available and therefore not summarized. From the title alone, it is possible to discern that the paper is an experimental study examining the association between lymphotoxin beta receptor signaling and abnormalities in airway smooth muscle. It is not possible to determine whether the results are from human patients or from animal or cell experiments based on the title alone.
The information not provided in the abstract remains in the full text and the appendices. This article leaves the gaps as they are. Readers are to determine which sentence in the abstract corresponds to the cited excerpt by comparing the two citations above.
One month later, the stock price was within the bottom quartile of the sample.
The remaining return after subtracting the portion attributable to the overall market movement is called excess return. The dates are counted in trading days, which are the days the stock market is open. In terms of the calendar, 20 trading days are approximately one month. The excess return on the day of the filing and for the following month are presented in the table below.
| Period | Excess return relative to the market | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Five trading days before the filing | −9.8% | The extent of movement before the filing |
| On the filing day | +2.3% | On the filing day or the first trading day thereafter |
| Accumulated over +1 to +5 trading days | −21.1% | One week |
| Accumulated over +1 to +20 trading days | −54.4% | One month |
A bundle of past cases of the same type is called a sample. The position counted from the bottom is expressed as a percentile. The one-month excess return of -54.4% in this case is in the bottom quarter, corresponding to the bottom 1% among 142 samples.
| Sample scale (20 trading days) | Tenth from the bottom | Fourth from the bottom | Median | Top 25% | Top 10% | This case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excess return | −31.8% | −20.1% | −6.9% | +5.5% | +19.5% | −54.4% |
Half of the sample falls between the two central marks on the chart. One checks the chart to see whether this case lies within or outside the range. The sample consists of cases where U.S.-listed companies cited papers in 8-K filings over the past decade. The company itself is excluded from the sample. The numbers listed here are historical facts, not rules applicable to future cases.
There is one additional case in the sample where the same company cited a paper in an 8-K, and it is included in the table below.
| Filing date | Journal of the cited paper | Excess return over one month |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-28 | British Journal of Dermatology | −19.7% |
Documents issued by the company after the filing
After the filing date, the company issued three 8-K filings. Only the item numbers are listed. In 8-K filings without titles, the item numbers indicate the type of content. Whether it was an earnings announcement or a contract can be determined from the number. The specific event is read in the original text of each link.
- 2023-02-03 8-K Item 1.01,8.01,9.01 — Material contract execution · Other events · Financial statements · Attached documents
- 2023-03-13 8-K Item 7.01, 9.01 — Reg FD Disclosure · Financial Statements · Exhibits
- 2023-03-29 8-K Item 2.02, 9.01 — Earnings Announcement · Financial Statements · Attached Documents
What this article does not answer
This article, which reads only abstracts, cannot answer how the paper re-examined what, by what method, and to what extent. How often the paper cited by the company has been cited afterward can be rechecked through the citation count on OpenAlexOpenAlex
Data source · Website. What will be seen next is whether the company's next 8-K again cites the same paper.
Explanation of terms
- 8-K
- A voluntary report submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission when a listed company has something to inform shareholders. The type is indicated by item numbers such as earnings, contracts, and executive changes. All events in this article come from this document.
- Excess return
- The remainder obtained by subtracting the market's overall return from the stock's return. It is used to observe the company's unique movement after removing the portion attributable to the market's collective rise or fall.
- Trading day
- A date counting only the days when the stock market is open. Since weekends and holidays are excluded, 20 trading days correspond to approximately one calendar month.
- Sample and percentile
- A bundle of past cases of the same type is a sample, and the position from the bottom is expressed as a percentile. A percentile of 10 means that nine out of ten cases performed better than this case.
- Abstract
- A summary placed at the beginning of a paper. The author writes in a few sentences what was done, how it was done, and what results were obtained. Without reading the full text, one cannot know the details or limitations of the method.