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Readout case C137 · retroactive reading · abstract basis

Medical testing facility filing citing Future Oncology paper — Castle Biosciences, 2026-05-06

Castle BiosciencesCastle BiosciencesNASDAQ CSTL
Filings SEC · Quote Google
cited a paper published in Future Oncology as a basis for its claims in a regulatory filing submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange CommissionU.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
Regulator · Website
. The company read the manner in which it wrote the paper and the actual scope demonstrated by the paper in sequence. The stock price movement for one month after the filing was compared to past cases of the same type to determine its position. This is a retrospective judgment written after knowing the results. The paper was read only up to the abstract.

Summary of facts. Castle Biosciences cited Future Oncology paper in the 8-K (Item 2.02 Earnings Release · 7.01 Reg FD Disclosure · 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits) filed on 2026-05-06. The paper was published on 2026-03-13. The abnormal return on the day of the filing was −0.3%, and the cumulative return over the following 20 trading days was −10.9%. When arranging 142 cases in order, this case ranks in the 44% from the bottom. This number is a past fact. It is not a rule to apply to future cases.
−0.3%
Excess return on filing day
−10.9%
20-trading-day cumulative excess return
44%
Percentile within 142 samples (lower means faster)
−6.9%
Median of samples (20-trading-day)

The disclosure was written in the press release as follows:

When a U.S. listed company has something to inform shareholders, it submits a 8-K to the Securities and Exchange Commission. The item numbers in the document submitted by Castle Biosciences on 2026-05-06 were 2.02 Earnings announcement · 7.01 Reg FD disclosure · 9.01 Financial statements · Attached documents. The company cited a paper published in Future Oncology in the attached press release. If the sentence citing the paper is translated verbatim, it reads as follows:

The integrated 31-gene expression profile test identifies low-risk patients with cutaneous melanoma who can forego the SLNB procedure: results from a prospective, multicenter trial. Future Oncol.

What the reader should first check is where the company placed the paper in the press release. Next, the reader should determine whether the paper supports the entire company claim or only part of it. To answer the latter question, one must read the full paper. This article, which has read only the abstract, cannot provide an answer to that.

The scope of the paper discussed in the abstract is limited to this.

The paper's title is The integrated 31-gene expression profile test identifies low-risk patients with cutaneous melanoma who can forego the SLNB procedure: results from a prospective, multicenter trial and it was published in Future Oncology on 2026-03-13. The authors are affiliated with Summit Medical Group (United States) · St. Elizabeth Healthcare · California Pacific Medical Center · Pacific Medical (China). The summary at the beginning of the paper is called abstract. This article has read only up to this point. The paragraph was written by a person after filtering a draft written by a machine reading the abstract by numerical comparison, and thus it is of a different grade than a full-text reading.

This is a prospective study examining whether a test measuring the expression of 31 genes helps in deciding whether to perform sentinel lymph node biopsy in patients with melanoma. Nine hundred twelve patients were included, and among the 430 who underwent biopsy, the test's predictive risk and actual metastasis were compared. Patients identified as low risk rarely experienced metastasis, while those identified as high risk experienced it much more frequently. The recurrence rate of patients who skipped biopsy based on the test results was also tracked.

What the abstract does not answer remains in the full text and appendices. This article, which has not gone beyond the abstract, leaves the blanks as they are. Readers should determine for themselves which sentence in the abstract corresponds to the cited excerpt from the company, by comparing the two citations above.

One month later, the stock price was within the middle half of the sample.

The remaining return after subtracting the portion that moves with the overall market is called excess return. The date is written as trading day, counting only the days the stock market is open. In terms of the calendar, 20 trading days are approximately one month. The excess return for the day of the regulatory filing and the following month are listed in the table below.

PeriodExcess return relative to the marketMeaning
Five trading days before the filing−1.8%The extent of movement before the filing
On the day of the filing−0.3%On the filing day or the first trading day after
Accumulated over +1 to +5 trading days−26.4%One week
Cumulative +1~+20 trading days−10.9%One month

A bundle of past cases of the same type is called a sample. The position counted from the bottom is expressed as a percentile. The one-month excess return of -10.9% in this case is within the bottom 44% of the 142 samples, placing it in the lower half.

Sample scale (20 trading days)Tenth from the bottomFourth from the bottommediantop 25%top 10%This case
Excess return−31.9%−20.1%−6.9%+5.5%+19.5%−10.9%

Half of the sample falls between the two central marks in the chart. From the chart, one can check whether this case lies within or outside that range. The sample consists of cases where U.S.-listed companies cited papers in 8-K filings over the past ten years. The company itself is excluded from the sample. The numbers listed here are past facts, not rules applicable to future cases.

After the disclosure, the company issued such documents.

After the disclosure date, the company filed three 8-Ks. Only the item numbers are listed. In 8-Ks without titles, the item number indicates the type of content. Whether it was an earnings announcement or a contract can be identified by that number. The specific event is read in the original text of each link.

What This Article Does Not Answer

This article, which reads only abstracts, cannot answer what the paper reviewed, how it was done, or what it showed. How many times the company's paper has been cited afterward can be verified again through the citation count on OpenAlexOpenAlex
Data source · Website
. What will be seen next is whether the company's next 8-K again cites the same paper.

How was it measured? The sample consists of 1,561 filings from U.S. listed companies on 8-K between 2015-01-01 and 2026-09-03 that included a paper DOI. From these, 184 cases were selected where a paper was published between -3 and +60 days from the filing date, and stock prices could be attached to 144 of them. Excess return is the cumulative daily return minus the market return, and the window is set from the filing date as 0 to +1 to +20 trading days. Stock prices are Sharadar adjusted close prices, paper metadata and abstracts are from OpenAlex, and filing searches are from SEC EDGAR professional search. Abstract summaries are generated by a machine, and the numbers in the summary are compared with the abstract by a program and then manually reviewed. Review date 2026-10-07.

Term explanation

8-K
A periodic report submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission by a U.S.-listed company when it has news to inform shareholders. The types are indicated by item numbers such as earnings, contracts, and executive changes. All events in this article are derived from this document.
Excess return
The remainder obtained by subtracting the overall market return from the stock return. It is used to observe the movement of the company alone after removing the portion where the market as a whole rises or falls.
Trading day
A date counted only on days when the stock market is open. Since weekends and holidays are excluded, 20 trading days correspond to approximately one calendar month.
Sample and percentile
A bundle of past cases of the same type is a sample, and the position from the bottom within it is expressed as a percentile. A percentile of 10 means that nine out of ten cases performed better than this case.
Abstract
A summary placed at the beginning of a paper. The author writes in a few sentences what was done, how it was done, and what results were obtained. Without reading the full text, one cannot know the details and limitations of the method.