Biological product filing citing a Journal of Medical Economics paper — Novavax, 2025-03-04
NovavaxNovavaxNASDAQ NVAX
Filings SEC · Quote Yahoo cited a paper published in the Journal of Medical Economics as a basis for its claims in a regulatory filing submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange CommissionU.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
Regulator · Website. The company read the manner in which the paper was written and the actual scope it demonstrated in sequence. It recorded where the stock price movement over the following month compared to past cases of the same type. This is a hindsight judgment written after knowing the results. The paper was read only up to the abstract.
The disclosure wrote the paper in the press release like this
When a U.S. listed company has something to inform shareholders, the report submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission is called 8-K. The item numbers of the document submitted by Novavax on 2025-03-04 were 7.01 Reg FD public · 9.01 financial statements · attached documents. The company cited a paper published in Journal of Medical Economics in the attached press release. If you copy the sentence citing the paper verbatim from the original, it is as follows.
US consumer and healthcare professional preferences for combination COVID - 19 and influenza vaccines.
What readers should look at first is where the company placed the paper in the press release. Next is to determine whether the paper supports the entire company's claim or only a part of it. To answer the latter question, one must read the full paper. This article, which only read the abstract, cannot answer that.
The scope of the paper mentioned in the abstract is up to here.
The title of the paper is US consumer and healthcare professional preferences for combination COVID-19 and influenza vaccines and it was published in Journal of Medical Economics on 2025-02-20. The authors' affiliations are RTI Health Solutions · Moderna Therapeutics (United States). The summary published at the beginning of the paper is called abstract. What this article read is only up to there. This paragraph was written by a person after filtering out a draft written by a machine by comparing numbers, so it is a different grade from a full reading of the paper.
It is a study that asked consumers and healthcare professionals in the United States through a survey whether they would prefer a combined vaccination of flu and COVID-19 vaccines. Among 601 consumers, 66% and among 298 healthcare professionals, 84% said they would choose the combined vaccine over the flu-only vaccine. Even when not forced to choose, 62% of consumers chose the combined vaccine and about 15% said they would get both separately. This is a survey asking about preference, not a paper discussing actual vaccination behavior or vaccine effectiveness.
The abstract does not answer; it remains in the main text and the appendix. This text, which does not go there, leaves the blank as it is. Readers compare the two citations above to determine which sentence in the abstract corresponds to the excerpt cited by the company.
A month later, the stock price was in the bottom quarter of the sample.
The return remaining after subtracting the portion that moves with the entire market is called excess return. The date is written as trading day, counting only the days when the stock market is open. In terms of a calendar, 20 trading days are about a month. The regulatory filing day in this case and the excess return for the following month are listed in the table below.
| Period | Excess return relative to the market | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 5 trading days before the filing | +12.6% | The extent to which the stock had already moved before the filing |
| regulatory filing day | −1.7% | filing day or first trading day thereafter |
| +1~+5 trading day cumulative | +3.4% | one week |
| +1~+20 trading day cumulative | −20.2% | one month |
A bundle of past cases of the same type is called a sample. The position counted from the bottom is expressed as a percentile. The one-month excess return of −20.2% in this case is within the bottom quarter, at the 24% position from the bottom among 142 samples.
| sample scale (20 trading days) | Tenth from the bottom | Fourth from the bottom | median | top 25% | top 10% | this case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| excess return | −31.9% | −20.1% | −6.9% | +5.5% | +19.5% | −20.2% |
Half of the sample falls between the two middle marks in the table. Check the table to see whether this case falls inside or outside of that range. The sample consists of cases where U.S.-listed companies cited papers in 8-K filings over the past decade. The company itself is excluded from the sample. The numbers listed here are historical facts, not rules to apply to future cases.
Another example of the same company reporting a paper in an 8-K filing is included in the sample below, together in the table.
| Filing date | The journal of the paper | Excess return for one month |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-09-10 | bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) | +13.6% |
After the filing, the company issued this document
Three 8-K filings issued by the company after the filing date are listed with only item numbers. In 8-K filings without titles, the item numbers indicate the type of content, so it is possible to determine whether it was an earnings announcement or a contract. The details of what happened are read in the original text of each link.
- 2025-03-11 8-K Item 5.02, 7.01, 9.01 — Officer/Director changes · Reg FD disclosure · Financial statements/attached documents
- 2025-03-11 8-K Item 1.02 — Termination of significant contract
- 2025-04-02 8-K Item 7.01 — Reg FD Disclosure
What this article does not answer
This article, which reads only abstracts, cannot answer how the paper re-examined what and showed up to where. How many times the paper cited by the company has been cited afterward can be checked again by the OpenAlexOpenAlex
Data source · Website citation count. What will be seen next is whether the company's next 8-K again cites the same paper.
Explanation of terms
- 8-K
- A voluntary report submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission when a U.S. listed company has something to inform shareholders. The type is indicated by item numbers such as earnings, contracts, and executive changes. All events in this article come from this document.
- Excess return
- The remainder after subtracting the overall market return from the stock return. It is used to see the movement of this company alone by removing the portion where the market as a whole rises or falls.
- Trading day
- A count of days when the stock market is open. Since weekends and holidays are excluded, 20 trading days correspond to roughly one calendar month.
- Sample and percentile
- A bundle of past cases of the same type is a sample, and the position from the bottom within it is expressed as a percentile. A percentile of 10 means that nine out of ten cases performed better than this case.
- Abstract
- A summary placed at the beginning of a paper. The author writes in a few sentences what was done, how it was done, and what results were obtained. Without reading the full text, details and limitations of the method cannot be known.