Pharmaceutical regulatory filing citing National Academies Press eBooks paper — Tonix Pharmaceuticals, 2024-07-08
Tonix PharmaceuticalsTonix PharmaceuticalsNASDAQ TNXP
Filings SEC · Quote Yahoo cited a paper published in National Academies Press eBooks in a regulatory filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange CommissionU.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
Regulator · Website as the basis for its claims. The company read the manner in which it wrote the paper and the actual scope presented in the paper in sequence. The stock price movement for one month after the filing was compared to past cases of the same type to determine its position. This is a retrospective judgment written after knowing the results. The paper was read only up to the abstract.
The disclosure wrote the paper in the press release like this
When a U.S. listed company has something to inform shareholders, the report submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission is called 8-K. The item numbers of the document submitted by Tonix Pharmaceuticals on 2024-07-08 were 7.01 Reg FD public · 8.01 Other Events · 9.01 Financial Statements·Attached Documents. The company cited a paper published in National Academies Press eBooks in the attached press release. The sentence citing the paper, copied verbatim from the original, is as follows.
A Long COVID Definition: A chronic, systemic disease state with profound consequences. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/27768. http://www.nationalacademies.org/long-covid-definition.
What readers should first look at is where the company placed the paper in the press release. Next, they should determine whether the paper supports the entire company claim or only a part of it. To answer the latter question, one must read the full paper. This article, which only read the abstract, cannot provide an answer.
The scope of the paper mentioned in the abstract is limited to this.
The paper title is A Long COVID Definition and it was published in National Academies Press eBooks on 2024-06-11. The authors' affiliations were not confirmed. The summary published at the beginning of the paper is called abstract. This article only read up to there. This paragraph was rewritten by a person after filtering a draft written by a machine reading the abstract by numerical comparison, and thus differs in grade from a full-text reading and original judgment.
This document is not a paper but a report on the definition of long COVID issued by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Since there is no abstract, it was not summarized, and the only thing that can be known from the title is that it is a document defining what long COVID should be called.
What the abstract does not answer remains in the full text and appendices. This article, which did not go further, leaves the blanks as they are. Readers should determine themselves which sentence in the abstract corresponds to the cited part by the company, based on the two citations above.
A month later, the stock price was in the lower quarter of the sample.
The return remaining after subtracting the portion that moves with the overall market is called excess return. The date is written as trading day, counting only the days when the stock market is open. In terms of a calendar, 20 trading days are approximately one month. The excess return for the day of the regulatory filing and the following one month in this case are listed in the table below.
| Period | Excess return relative to the market | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 5 trading days before the filing | +17.6% | The extent already moved before the filing |
| Day of the filing | −11.5% | Day of filing or the first trading day after |
| +1~+5 trading days cumulative | −33.4% | One week |
| +1~+20 trading days cumulative | −40.3% | One month |
A bundle of past cases of the same type is called a sample. The position counted from the bottom is expressed as a percentile. The one-month excess return of -40.3% in this case is within the bottom quarter, corresponding to the 7% position from the bottom among 142 cases in the sample.
| Sample scale (20 trading days) | Tenth from the bottom | Fourth from the bottom | Median | Upper 25% | Upper 10% | This case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excess return | −31.8% | −20.1% | −6.9% | +5.5% | +19.5% | −40.3% |
Half of the sample falls between the two middle marks in the table. Check the table to see whether this case falls inside or outside of that range. The sample consists of cases where U.S. listed companies reported papers in 8-K filings over the past ten years. The company itself is excluded from the sample. The numbers listed here are historical facts, not rules to apply to future cases.
There are 23 additional cases where the same company reported a paper in 8-K, and they are included together in the table below.
| Disclosure date | the academic journal of the paper | one month excess return |
|---|---|---|
| 2018-01-22 | PLoS ONE | −15.3% |
| 2020-12-04 | Genome biology | +20.9% |
| 2020-12-23 | Genome biology | +32.1% |
| 2021-11-23 | JCI Insight | −11.5% |
| 2021-12-14 | JCI Insight | −23.9% |
| 2022-01-04 | JCI Insight | −38.1% |
| 2022-01-11 | JCI Insight | −31.8% |
| 2022-03-14 | Nature Structural & Molecular Biology | −9.3% |
after the filing, the company issued such documents
after the filing date, the company issued three 8-K filings. Only the item numbers are listed here. In 8-K filings without titles, the item numbers indicate the type of content. Whether it was an earnings announcement or a contract can be identified by the number. The details of what occurred are read in the original text of each link.
- 2024-07-10 8-K Item 1.01, 8.01, 9.01 — Material Contract Execution · Other Events · Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 2024-07-16 8-K Item 7.01, 9.01 — Reg FD Disclosure · Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 2024-07-25 8-K Item 7.01, 8.01, 9.01 — Reg FD Disclosure · Other Events · Financial Statements and Exhibits
what this article did not answer
This article, which reads only abstracts, cannot answer what method the paper used, what it showed, and to what extent. How many times the paper cited by the company was cited afterward can be verified again by the OpenAlexOpenAlex
Data source · Website citation count. The next thing to see is whether the company's next 8-K again cites the same paper.
Glossary
- 8-K
- A voluntary report submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission when a U.S. listed company has something to inform shareholders. It is categorized by item numbers such as earnings, contracts, and executive changes. All events in this article come from this document.
- Excess return
- The remainder after subtracting the overall market return from the stock return. It is used to see the movement unique to this company by removing the portion where the market as a whole rose or fell.
- Trading day
- A date counting only the days the stock market is open. Since weekends and holidays are excluded, 20 trading days are about a month in calendar terms.
- Sample and Percentile
- A bundle of past cases of the same type is a sample, and the position from the bottom is expressed as a percentile. A percentile of 10 means that nine out of ten cases performed better than this case.
- Abstract
- A summary placed at the beginning of a paper. The author writes in a few sentences what was done, how it was done, and what results were obtained. Without reading the full text, one cannot know the details or limitations of the method.