Pharmaceutical regulatory filing citing a JAMA paper — Tonix Pharmaceuticals, 2024-11-13
Tonix PharmaceuticalsTonix PharmaceuticalsNASDAQ TNXP
Filings SEC · Quote Yahoo cited a paper published in JAMAJAMA
Journal · Website in a regulatory filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange CommissionU.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
Regulator · Website as a basis for its claims. The company read the way it wrote the paper and the actual scope of the paper in sequence. It described where the stock price movement over the following month compared to past cases of the same type. This is a hindsight judgment written after knowing the results. The paper was read only up to the abstract.
The disclosure wrote the paper in the press release like this
When a U.S. listed company has something to inform shareholders, the report submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission is called 8-K. The item numbers of the document submitted by Tonix Pharmaceuticals on 2024-11-13 were 7.01 Reg FD public · 8.01 other events · 9.01 financial statements · attached documents. The company cited the paper published in JAMA in the attached press release. If the sentence citing the paper is translated verbatim, it reads as follows.
PMID: 36257333; PMCID: PMC9873555. (8) JAMA Collier AY, et al. JAMA. 2024 doi: 10.1001/jama.2024.20951.
What the reader should first see is where the company placed the paper in the press release. Next is to determine whether the paper supports the entire company's claim or only a part of it. To answer the latter question, one must read the full paper. This article, which only read the abstract, cannot answer that.
The scope of the paper mentioned in the abstract is up to this point.
The title of the paper is Decline of Mpox Antibody Responses After Modified Vaccinia Ankara–Bavarian Nordic Vaccination and it was published in JAMA on 2024-10-03. The authors' affiliations are Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center · Harvard University · National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. The summary published at the beginning of the paper is called abstract. This article only read up to there. This paragraph was rewritten by a person after filtering a draft written by a machine reading the abstract by numerical comparison, so it is a different grade from a full-text reading and original judgment.
This article is a short research letter with only one sentence in the abstract. The one sentence content is that the specific immune response to eptifibatide was measured over 12 months after receiving the eptifibatide vaccine MVA-BN. The title says the antibody response decreased. How much it decreased and how many people were observed are in the main text, and this article did not go that far.
The abstract does not answer; the details remain in the main text and the appendix. This article, which does not go there, leaves the blank as it is. Readers compare the two citations above to determine which sentence in the abstract corresponds to the excerpt cited by the company.
A month later, the stock price was in the top quarter of the sample.
The portion of returns not explained by the market movement is called excess return. Dates are recorded as trading days, counting only the days the stock market is open. In calendar terms, 20 trading days amount to about a month. The excess return for the day of the regulatory filing and the following month are presented in the table below.
| Period | Excess return relative to the market | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 5 trading days before the filing | −1.1% | The extent to which the stock moved before the filing |
| regulatory filing day | −1.7% | filing day or the first trading day thereafter |
| cumulative +1~+5 trading days | +33.3% | one week |
| cumulative +1~+20 trading days | +50.9% | one month |
A bundle of past cases of the same type is called a sample. The position counted from the bottom is expressed as a percentile. The one-month excess return of +50.9% in this case is within the top quarter, corresponding to the 98% position from the bottom among 142 samples.
| sample scale (20 trading days) | Tenth from the bottom | Fourth from the bottom | median | top 25% | top 10% | this case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| excess return | −31.9% | −20.1% | −7.4% | +5.5% | +18.7% | +50.9% |
Half of the sample falls between the two middle marks in the table. Check the table to see whether this case falls inside or outside that range. The sample consists of cases where U.S.-listed companies cited papers in 8-K filings over the past decade. The company itself is excluded from the sample. The numbers listed here are historical facts, not rules to apply to future cases.
The same company had 23 additional instances where papers were mentioned in 8-K filings, which are listed together in the table below.
| Filing date | The journal of the paper | Excess return in one month |
|---|---|---|
| 2018-01-22 | PLoS ONE | −15.3% |
| 2020-12-04 | Genome biology | +20.9% |
| 2020-12-23 | Genome biology | +32.1% |
| 2021-11-23 | JCI Insight | −11.5% |
| 2021-12-14 | JCI Insight | −23.9% |
| 2022-01-04 | JCI Insight | −38.1% |
| 2022-01-11 | JCI Insight | −31.8% |
| 2022-03-14 | Nature Structural & Molecular Biology | −9.3% |
After the filing, the company issued this document
Three 8-K filings issued by the company after the filing date are listed with only item numbers. In 8-K filings without titles, the item numbers indicate the type of content. Whether it was an earnings announcement or a contract can be identified by the number. The specific event should be read in the original text of each link.
- 2024-12-03 8-K Items 7.01, 8.01, 9.01 — Reg FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements · Exhibits
- 2024-12-17 8-K Items 7.01, 8.01, 9.01 — Reg FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements · Exhibits
- 2024-12-20 8-K Item 8.01, 9.01 — Other Events · Financial Statements · Exhibits
What This Article Does Not Answer
This article, which reads only abstracts, cannot answer what method the paper used, what it reviewed, or how far it showed. How often the paper cited by the company has been cited afterward can be checked again through the OpenAlexOpenAlex
Data source · Website citation count. What will be seen next is whether the company's next 8-K again cites the same paper.
Explanation of Terms
- 8-K
- A voluntary report submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission when a listed company has something to inform shareholders. The type is indicated by item numbers such as performance, contracts, and executive changes. All events in this article come from this document.
- Excess Return
- The remainder after subtracting the overall market return from the stock return. It is used to see the movement of the company alone by removing the portion where the market as a whole rises or falls.
- trading day
- a count of days when the stock market is open. weekends and holidays are excluded, so 20 trading days are about a calendar month.
- sample and percentile
- A bundle of past cases of the same type is a sample, and the position from the bottom is expressed as a percentile. A percentile of 10 means that nine out of ten cases performed better than this case.
- abstract
- a summary placed at the beginning of a paper. the author writes in a few sentences what was done, how it was done, and what was found. without reading the full text, details and limitations of the method cannot be known.