Pharmaceutical filing citing British Journal of Dermatology paper — Moonlake Immunotherapeutics, 2024-03-11
Moonlake ImmunotherapeuticsMoonlake ImmunotherapeuticsNASDAQ MLTX
Filings SEC · Quote Yahoo cited a paper published in the British Journal of Dermatology as a basis for its claims in a regulatory filing submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange CommissionU.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
Regulator · Website. The company read the manner in which it wrote the paper and the actual scope of the paper in sequence. The stock price movement for one month after the filing was compared to past cases of the same type, and the position was recorded. This is a hindsight judgment written after knowing the results. The paper was read only up to the abstract.
The disclosure is written in the press release as follows:
When a U.S. listed company has something to inform its shareholders, the form it files with the Securities and Exchange Commission is called 8-K. The item numbers of the document filed by Moonlake Immunotherapeutics on 2024-03-11 were 7.01 Reg FD Public · 8.01 Other Events · 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits. In the press release attached to it, the company cited a paper published in British Journal of Dermatology. If the sentence citing the paper is translated verbatim, it reads as follows.
Industry and Market Data Certain information contained in this presentation relates to or is based on studies, publications, surveys and our own internal estimates and research .
What a reader should first check is where the company placed the paper in the press release. Next, the reader should determine whether the paper supports the entire company claim or only a part of it. To answer the latter question, one must read the full paper. This article, which has only read the abstract, cannot provide an answer to that.
The scope of the paper mentioned in the abstract is limited to this.
The paper's title is Long-term drug survival of adalimumab, infliximab, secukinumab and ustekinumab in hidradenitis suppurativa: a Danish nationwide cohort study and it was published in British Journal of Dermatology on 2024-02-02. The authors are affiliated with Bispebjerg Hospital · Gentofte Hospital · Copenhagen Prospective Studies on Asthma in Childhood · St. Vincent's University Hospital. The summary at the beginning of the paper is called abstract. This article has only read up to that point. The paragraph was written by a person after filtering out a draft written by a machine by comparing numbers, so it is of a different grade than a full reading of the paper.
This is a nationwide cohort study examining how long patients with pyoderma gangrenosum continue to use biologic agents. Data from 807 treatment records of 472 patients were collected to compare the duration of four drugs. The median duration for adalimumab was about eight months, and patients who used biologics for the first time maintained treatment significantly longer than those who had previously used them. This study examined the duration of drug use, not which drug was more effective.
What the abstract does not answer remains in the full paper and its appendices. This article, which has not gone beyond the abstract, leaves blanks as they are. Readers should determine themselves which sentence in the abstract corresponds to the excerpt cited by the company, by comparing the two citations above.
One month later, the stock price was within the middle half of the sample.
The remaining return after subtracting the portion that moves with the overall market is called excess return. The date is written as trading day, counting only the days the stock market is open. In calendar terms, 20 trading days are approximately one month. The excess return for the day of the regulatory filing and the following month are listed in the table below.
| Period | Excess return relative to the market | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Five trading days before the filing | −11.5% | The extent of movement before the filing |
| On the day of the filing | +3.3% | On the filing day or the first trading day thereafter |
| Accumulated over +1 to +5 trading days | +7.9% | One week |
| Cumulative +1~+20 trading days | −3.1% | One month |
A bundle of past cases of the same type is called a sample. The position counted from the bottom is expressed as a percentile. The one-month excess return of -3.1% in this case is within the bottom 58% of the 142 samples, placing it in the lower half.
| Sample scale (20 trading days) | Tenth from the bottom | Fourth from the bottom | median | top 25% | top 10% | This case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excess return | −31.9% | −20.1% | −7.4% | +5.5% | +19.5% | −3.1% |
Half of the sample falls between the two central marks on the chart. One checks from the chart whether this case lies within or outside that range. The sample collects cases where U.S.-listed companies cited papers in 8-K filings over the past ten years. The company itself is excluded from the sample. The numbers listed here are past facts, not rules to apply to future cases.
After the regulatory filing, the company issued such documents
After the filing date, this company issued three 8-K filings, listed here only by item number. In 8-K filings without titles, the item number indicates the type of content. One can determine whether it was an earnings announcement or a contract based on that number. What exactly occurred is read in the original text of each link.
- 2024-05-07 8-K Item 2.02 — Earnings announcement
- 2024-06-06 8-K Item 5.07 — Results of the Shareholders' Meeting
- 2024-06-10 8-K Item 7.01, 8.01, 9.01 — Reg FD Disclosure · Other Events · Financial Statements and Exhibits
What This Article Does Not Answer
This article does not answer what method the paper used, what it reviewed, or what it showed. The number of times the company's paper has been cited afterward can be verified again through the OpenAlexOpenAlex
Data source · Website citation count. What will be seen next is whether the company's next 8-K again cites the same paper.
Glossary
- 8-K
- A voluntary report submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission when a U.S. listed company has news to inform shareholders. Types are indicated by item numbers such as earnings, contracts, and executive changes. All events in this article are derived from this document.
- Excess return
- The remainder after subtracting the overall market return from the stock return. It is used to observe the movement of the company alone by removing the portion of the market's collective rise and fall.
- Trading day
- A date counting only days when the stock market is open. Since weekends and holidays are excluded, 20 trading days correspond to roughly one calendar month.
- Sample and percentile
- A bundle of past cases of the same type is a sample, and the position from the bottom is expressed as a percentile. A percentile of 10 means that nine out of ten cases performed better than this case.
- Abstract
- An abstract is placed at the beginning of a paper. The author writes in a few sentences what was done, how it was done, and what results were obtained. Without reading the full text, one cannot know the details or limitations of the methods.