Pharmaceutical filing citing a JCI Insight paper — Tonix Pharmaceuticals, 2022-01-11
Tonix PharmaceuticalsTonix PharmaceuticalsNASDAQ TNXP
Filings SEC · Quote Yahoo cited a paper published in JCI Insight in a regulatory filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange CommissionU.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
Regulator · Website as a basis for its claims. The company read the way it wrote the paper and the actual scope of the paper in order. It described where the stock price movement over the following month compared to past cases of the same type. This is a hindsight judgment written after knowing the results. The paper was read only up to the abstract.
The disclosure wrote the paper in the press release like this
When a U.S. listed company has something to inform shareholders, the report submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission is called 8-K. The item number of the document submitted by Tonix Pharmaceuticals on 2022-01-11 was 7.01 Reg FD public · 9.01 financial statements·attached documents. The company cited a paper published in JCI Insight in the attached press release. Translating the sentence that cites the paper verbatim, it reads as follows.
JCI Insight . 2021 in press preview 10.1172/jci.insight.153165 INFECTIOUS DISEASE AND IMMUNOLOGY PORTFOLIO 23 © 2022 Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp.
What readers should look at first is where the company placed the paper in the press release. Next, they should determine whether the paper supports the entire company claim or only a part of it. To answer the latter question, one must read the full paper. This article, which has read only the abstract, cannot provide an answer.
The scope of the paper in the abstract is up to this point.
The paper title is Sangivamycin is highly effective against SARS-CoV-2 in vitro and has favorable drug properties and it was published in JCI Insight on 2021-11-22. The authors' affiliations are OyaGen (United States) · National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases · University of Rochester. The summary placed at the beginning of the paper is called abstract. This article has read only up to this point. This paragraph was rewritten by a person after filtering a draft written by a machine reading the abstract through numerical comparison, so it is of a different grade than a full-text reading and original judgment.
Sangivamycin, a nucleoside analog known to be effective against various viruses, was tested in cell experiments against multiple variants of the coronavirus. In various cell lines, it inhibited viral replication by half at nanomolar concentrations and showed greater inhibitory effects than the related drug remdesivir. The pharmacokinetic and toxicity indicators were within a clinically usable range, and combining it with remdesivir enhanced the effect. Since these are results from cell experiments, whether it is effective in humans is beyond the scope of this paper.
The abstract does not answer; it remains in the main text and the appendix. This text, which does not go there, leaves the blank as it is. Readers compare the two citations above to determine which sentence in the abstract corresponds to the excerpt cited by the company.
A month later, the stock price was in the bottom quarter of the sample.
The return remaining after subtracting the portion that moves with the entire market is called excess return. The date is written as trading day, counting only the days when the stock market is open. In terms of a calendar, 20 trading days are approximately one month. The regulatory filing day in this case and the excess return for the following month are listed in the table below.
| Period | Excess return relative to the market | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 5 trading days before the filing | −16.5% | The extent to which it had already moved before the filing |
| regulatory filing day | +0.4% | filing day or first trading day thereafter |
| +1~+5 trading day cumulative | −13.3% | one week |
| +1~+20 trading day cumulative | −31.8% | one month |
A bundle of past cases of the same type is called a sample. The position counted from the bottom is expressed as a percentile. The one-month excess return of -31.8% in this case is within the bottom quarter, at the 11% position from the bottom among 142 cases in the sample.
| sample scale (20 trading days) | Tenth from the bottom | Fourth from the bottom | median | top 25% | top 10% | this case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| excess return | −31.9% | −20.1% | −6.9% | +5.5% | +19.5% | −31.8% |
Half of the sample falls between the two middle marks in the table. Check the table to see whether this case falls inside or outside of that range. The sample consists of cases where U.S.-listed companies cited papers in 8-K filings over the past decade. The company itself is excluded from the sample. The numbers listed here are historical facts, not rules to apply to future cases.
The same company had 23 additional cases where papers were mentioned in 8-K filings, which are listed in the table below together.
| Filing date | The journal of the paper | Excess return in one month |
|---|---|---|
| 2018-01-22 | PLoS ONE | −15.3% |
| 2020-12-04 | Genome biology | +20.9% |
| 2020-12-23 | Genome biology | +32.1% |
| 2021-11-23 | JCI Insight | −11.5% |
| 2021-12-14 | JCI Insight | −23.9% |
| 2022-01-04 | JCI Insight | −38.1% |
| 2022-03-14 | Nature Structural & Molecular Biology | −9.3% |
| 2022-04-06 | Public health reviews | −29.0% |
After the filing, the company issued this document
Three 8-K filings issued by the company after the filing date are listed with only item numbers. In 8-K filings without titles, the item numbers indicate the type of content, so it is possible to determine whether it was an earnings announcement or a contract. The details of what happened can be read in the original text of each link.
- 2022-02-10 8-K Item 5.03, 5.07, 9.01 — Bylaws amendment · Shareholders' meeting results · Financial statements · Attached documents
- 2022-02-18 8-K Item 5.02 — Executive · Director changes
- 2022-02-28 8-K Item 7.01, 8.01, 9.01 — Reg FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements · Exhibits
What this article does not answer
This article, which reads only abstracts, cannot answer how the paper re-examined what and showed up to where. How many times the paper cited by the company has been cited afterward can be re-confirmed through the OpenAlexOpenAlex
Data source · Website citation count. What will be seen next is whether the company's next 8-K again cites the same paper.
Explanation of terms
- 8-K
- A voluntary report submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission when a listed company has something to inform shareholders. The type is indicated by item numbers such as earnings, contracts, and executive changes. All events in this article come from this document.
- Excess return
- The remainder after subtracting the overall market return from the stock return. It is used to see the movement of this company alone by removing the portion where the market as a whole rose or fell.
- trading day
- a count of days when the stock market is open. weekends and holidays are excluded, so 20 trading days are about a calendar month.
- sample and percentile
- A bundle of past cases of the same type is a sample, and the position from the bottom is expressed as a percentile. A percentile of 10 means that nine out of ten cases performed better than this case.
- abstract
- a summary placed at the beginning of a paper. the author writes in a few sentences what was done, how it was done, and what was found. without reading the full text, details and limitations of the method cannot be known.