Pharmaceutical filing citing The Lancet Regional Health - Americas paper — Emergent Biosolutions, 2024-08-06
Emergent BiosolutionsEmergent BiosolutionsNYSE EBS
Filings SEC · Quote Yahoo cited a paper published in The Lancet Regional Health - Americas in its regulatory filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange CommissionU.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
Regulator · Website as the basis for its claims. The company read the manner in which the paper was written and the actual scope it demonstrated in sequence. The stock price movement for one month after the filing was compared to past cases of the same type and recorded where it stood. This is a hindsight judgment written after knowing the results. The paper was read only up to the abstract.
The disclosure is written in the press release as follows:
When a U.S.-listed company has something to inform its shareholders, the periodic report it files with the Securities and Exchange Commission is called 8-K. The item numbers of the document filed by Emergent Biosolutions on 2024-08-06 were 2.02 Earnings Release · 7.01 Reg FD Disclosure · 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits. In the press release attached to it, the company cited a paper published in The Lancet Regional Health - Americas. Translating the sentence in the original text that cites the paper verbatim, it reads as follows.
Impact of opioid overdoses on US life expectancy and years of life lost, by demographic group and stimulant co-involvement: A mortality data analysis from 2019 to 2022. The Lancet. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.lana.2024.100813 2 Bryter Inc. interviewed 2,010 American adults online between May 10 and May 12, 2024.
What the reader should first check is where the company placed the paper in the press release. Next, they should determine whether the paper supports the company's entire claim or only part of it. To answer the latter question, one must read the full paper. This article, which only read the abstract, cannot provide an answer.
The scope of the paper discussed in the abstract is limited to this.
The paper's title is Impact of opioid overdoses on US life expectancy and years of life lost, by demographic group and stimulant co-involvement: a mortality data analysis from 2019 to 2022 and it was published in The Lancet Regional Health - Americas on 2024-06-17. The authors are affiliated with Johns Hopkins University. The summary at the beginning of the paper is called abstract. This article only read up to that point. The paragraph was written by a person after filtering out a draft generated by a machine reading the abstract, so it is of a different quality than a full reading of the paper.
This is a study that calculates how much the life expectancy in the United States has been reduced due to opioid overdose deaths using national death statistics. These deaths have more than tripled over the past decade, reaching 80,806 in 2022. Using life tables, the paper estimates the life expectancy without opioid deaths and compares it with the actual life expectancy, breaking down the differences by population groups. Since this is a statistical analysis, the paper does not address what policies could reduce these deaths.
What the abstract does not answer remains in the full paper and its appendices. This article, which has not accessed those sections, leaves the gaps as they are. Readers should compare the two citations above to determine which sentence in the abstract corresponds to the citation provided by the company.
One month later, the stock price was within the middle half of the sample.
The remaining return after subtracting the portion that moves with the overall market is called excess return. The date is written as trading day, counting only the days the stock market is open. In terms of the calendar, 20 trading days are approximately one month. The excess return for the day of the regulatory filing and the following month are listed in the table below.
| Period | Excess return relative to the market | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Five trading days before the filing | −29.5% | The extent of movement before the filing |
| On the day of the filing | +0.3% | On the filing day or the first trading day after |
| Accumulated over +1 to +5 trading days | −16.1% | One week |
| Cumulative +1~+20 trading days | −1.1% | One month |
A bundle of past cases of the same type is called a sample. The position counted from the bottom is expressed as a percentile. The one-month excess return of −1.1% in this case is within the bottom 63% of the 142 cases in the sample, and it is within the lower half.
| Sample scale (20 trading days) | Tenth from the bottom | Fourth from the bottom | median | top 25% | top 10% | This case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excess return | −31.9% | −20.1% | −7.4% | +5.5% | +19.5% | −1.1% |
Half of the sample falls between the two central marks on the chart. One checks from the chart whether this case lies inside or outside. The sample collects cases where U.S. listed companies wrote papers in 8-K over the past ten years. The company itself is excluded from the sample. The numbers written here are past facts, not rules applicable to the next case.
After the regulatory filing, the company issued such documents
After the filing date, the company issued three 8-K filings, listed only by item numbers. In 8-K filings without titles, the item number indicates the type of content. One can determine whether it was an earnings announcement or a contract based on that number. What exactly happened is read in the original text of each link.
- 2024-08-20 8-K Item 7.01, 8.01, 9.01 — Reg FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements · Exhibits
- 2024-08-30 8-K Item 7.01, 8.01, 9.01 — Reg FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements · Exhibits
- 2024-09-03 8-K Items 1.01,1.02,2.03,3.02,7.01,8.01,9.01 — Material contract execution · Material contract termination · Debt issuance · Unregistered securities sale · Reg FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements·Exhibits
What This Article Does Not Answer
This article, which reads only the abstract, does not answer what method the paper used, what it reviewed, and how far it went. How often the paper cited by the company has been cited afterward can be checked again using the OpenAlexOpenAlex
Data source · Website citation count. What will be seen next is whether the company's next 8-K again cites the same paper.
Glossary
- 8-K
- A voluntary report submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission when a U.S. listed company has something to inform shareholders. The type is indicated by item numbers such as earnings, contracts, and executive changes. All events in this article come from this document.
- Excess return
- The remainder after subtracting the overall market return from the stock return. It is used to see the movement of the company alone, excluding the part where the market as a whole rises or falls.
- Trading day
- A date counting only days when the stock market is open. Since weekends and holidays are excluded, 20 trading days are approximately one calendar month.
- Sample and percentile
- A bundle of past cases of the same type is a sample, and the position from the bottom within it is expressed as a percentile. A percentile of 10 means that nine out of ten cases performed better than this case.
- Abstract
- An abstract is placed at the beginning of a paper. The author writes in a few sentences what was done, how it was done, and what results were obtained. Without reading the full text, one cannot know the details or limitations of the methods.