Pharmaceutical filing citing Annals of Internal Medicine paper — Tonix Pharmaceuticals, 2024-03-07
Tonix PharmaceuticalsTonix PharmaceuticalsNASDAQ TNXP
Filings SEC · Quote Yahoo cited a paper published in the Annals of Internal Medicine as a basis for its claims in a regulatory filing submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange CommissionU.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
Regulator · Website. The company read the manner in which it wrote the paper and the actual scope the paper demonstrated in sequence. It described where the stock price movement over the following month compared to past cases of the same type. This is a hindsight judgment written after knowing the results. The paper was read only up to the abstract.
The disclosure wrote the paper in the press release like this
When a U.S. listed company has something to inform shareholders, the report submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission is called 8-K. The item numbers of the document submitted by Tonix Pharmaceuticals on 2024-03-07 were 7.01 Reg FD Public · 8.01 Other Events · 9.01 Financial Statements·Attached Documents. The company cited a paper published in Annals of Internal Medicine in the attached press release. The sentence citing the paper, copied verbatim from the original, is as follows.
Annals of Internal Medicine. 2024: www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M23-2757 . 5. Sullivan GM, et al.
What readers should look at first is where the company placed the paper in the press release. Next, they should determine whether the paper supports the entire company claim or only a part of it. To answer the latter question, one must read the full paper. This article, which reads only the abstract, cannot answer that.
The scope of the paper mentioned in the abstract is limited to this extent.
The paper title is The Management of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder and Acute Stress Disorder: Synopsis of the 2023 U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs and U.S. Department of Defense Clinical Practice Guideline and it was published in Annals of Internal Medicine on 2024-02-26. The authors' affiliations are National Center for Post Traumatic Stress Disorder · Defense Health Agency · Naval Medical Center San Diego · United States Department of Veterans Affairs. The summary published at the beginning of the paper is called abstract. What this article has read is only up to there. This paragraph was rewritten by a person after filtering a draft written by a machine reading the abstract through numerical comparison, so it is of a different grade from a full-text reading and a definitive judgment.
This document is not a research paper but a summary of the revised clinical practice guidelines for post-traumatic stress disorder jointly updated by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs and the Department of Defense. Experts from both agencies established 12 key questions, systematically searched the literature, assigned evidence grades, and reached consensus to formulate recommendations. They issued 34 recommendations across five areas: diagnosis, prevention, treatment, nightmare treatment, and cases with comorbid conditions. Among these, six treatment recommendations were classified as strong. Which drugs and treatments are recommended and which are not are listed in the main text's table, which this article does not include.
What the abstract does not answer remains in the full text and appendices. This article, which does not go beyond the abstract, leaves gaps as they are. Readers are to judge for themselves which sentence in the abstract corresponds to the excerpt cited by the company, by comparing the two citations above.
One month later, the stock price was in the bottom quarter of the sample.
The remaining return after subtracting the portion attributable to market-wide movements is called excess return. Dates are counted in trading days, meaning only days when the stock market is open. On a calendar, 20 trading days amount to roughly one month. The excess return on the day of the filing and for the following month are listed in the table below.
| Period | Excess return relative to the market | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 5 trading days before the filing | −3.2% | The extent of movement before the filing |
| On the filing date | +1.1% | On the filing date or the first trading day thereafter |
| Cumulative over +1 to +5 trading days | −8.5% | One week |
| Cumulative over +1 to +20 trading days | −64.2% | One month |
A bundle of past cases of the same type is called a sample. The position counted from the bottom is expressed as a percentile. The one-month excess return of -64.2% in this case is in the bottom quarter, corresponding to the 1% from the bottom among 142 samples.
| Sample scale (20 trading days) | Tenth from the bottom | Fourth from the bottom | Median | Top 25% | Top 10% | This case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excess return | −31.8% | −20.1% | −6.9% | +5.5% | +19.5% | −64.2% |
Half of the sample falls between the two central marks on the chart. One checks the chart to see whether this case lies within or outside the range. The sample collects cases where U.S.-listed companies cited papers in 8-K filings over the past decade. The company itself is excluded from the sample. The numbers listed here are historical facts, not rules applicable to future cases.
There are 23 additional cases where the same company cited a paper in 8-K, which are included in the table below.
| Disclosure date | Journal of the cited paper | Excess return over one month |
|---|---|---|
| 2018-01-22 | PLoS ONE | −15.3% |
| 2020-12-04 | Genome biology | +20.9% |
| 2020-12-23 | Genome biology | +32.1% |
| 2021-11-23 | JCI Insight | −11.5% |
| 2021-12-14 | JCI Insight | −23.9% |
| 2022-01-04 | JCI Insight | −38.1% |
| 2022-01-11 | JCI Insight | −31.8% |
| 2022-03-14 | Nature Structural & Molecular Biology | −9.3% |
Documents issued by the company after the disclosure
Only item numbers are listed for the three 8-K filings issued by the company after the disclosure date. In 8-K filings without titles, the item number indicates the type of content. Whether it was an earnings announcement or a contract can be determined from the item number. The specific event is read in the original text of each link.
- 2024-03-11 8-K Items 7.01, 8.01, 9.01 — Reg FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- 2024-03-19 8-K Items 7.01, 8.01, 9.01 — Reg FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements · Attached documents
- 2024-03-20 8-K Items 7.01, 8.01, 9.01 — Reg FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements · Attached documents
What this article does not answer
This article, which reads only abstracts, does not answer how the paper re-examined what, by what method, and to what extent. How often the paper cited by the company was cited afterwards can be rechecked by OpenAlexOpenAlex
Data source · Website citation count. What will be seen next is whether the company's next 8-K again cites the same paper.
Explanation of terms
- 8-K
- A voluntary report submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission when a U.S. listed company has something to inform shareholders. The type is indicated by item numbers such as earnings, contracts, and executive changes. All events in this article come from this document.
- Excess return
- The remainder obtained by subtracting the market's overall return from the stock's return. It is used to observe the company's unique movement after removing the portion attributable to the market's collective rise or fall.
- Trading day
- A date counting only the days when the stock market is open. Since weekends and holidays are excluded, 20 trading days correspond to approximately one calendar month.
- Sample and percentile
- A bundle of past cases of the same type is a sample, and the position from the bottom within it is expressed as a percentile. A percentile of 10 means that nine out of ten cases performed better than this case.
- Abstract
- A summary placed at the beginning of a paper. The author writes in a few sentences what was done, how it was done, and what results were obtained. Without reading the full text, the details and limitations of the method cannot be known.