Pharmaceutical filing citing British Journal of Dermatology paper — Avalo Therapeutics, 2024-03-28
Avalo TherapeuticsAvalo TherapeuticsNASDAQ AVTX
Filings SEC · Quote Yahoo cited a paper published in the British Journal of Dermatology as a basis for its claims in a regulatory filing submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange CommissionU.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
Regulator · Website. The company read the manner in which it wrote the paper and the actual scope of the paper in sequence. The stock price movement for one month after the filing was compared to past cases of the same type to determine its position. This is a retrospective judgment written after knowing the results. The paper was read only up to the abstract.
The disclosure wrote the paper in the press release like this
When a U.S. listed company has something to inform shareholders, it submits a current report to the Securities and Exchange Commission, called 8-K. The item numbers in the document submitted by Avalo Therapeutics on 2024-03-28 were 1.01 Significant Contract Execution · 2.01 Completion of Asset Acquisition · Disposition · 3.01 · 3.02 Sale of Unregistered Securities · 5.02 Officer · Director Changes · 5.03 Charter Amendment · 8.01 Other Events · 9.01 Financial Statements · Attached Documents. The company cited the paper published in British Journal of Dermatology in the attached press release. The sentence citing the paper, copied verbatim from the original, is as follows.
The sentence in the press release citing the paper could not be automatically found. Confirm it from the original link. Do not replace it with another paragraph.
What readers see first is where the company placed the paper in the press release. Next is determining whether the paper supports the entire company claim or only a part of it. To answer the latter question, one must read the full paper. This article, which read only the abstract, cannot answer that.
The scope of the paper discussed in the abstract is limited to this extent
The paper title is Secukinumab in patients with moderate-to-severe hidradenitis suppurativa based on prior biologic exposure: an efficacy and safety analysis from the SUNSHINE and SUNRISE phase III trials and it was published in British Journal of Dermatology on 2024-03-12. The authors' affiliations are Städtisches Klinikum Dessau · Medizinische Hochschule Brandenburg Theodor Fontane · Inserm · Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Nice. The summary published at the beginning of the paper is called abstract. This article read only up to there. This paragraph was rewritten by a person after filtering a draft written by a machine reading the abstract by number comparison, so it is of a different grade from a full-text reading and original judgment.
This analysis re-examined data from two phase 3 trials of secukinumab in patients with recurrent furuncles in the armpits and groin due to pyoderma gangrenosum, separating those who had previously used biologics from those who had not. Patients received injections every 2 or 4 weeks or a placebo for 16 weeks, followed by continued treatment with the actual drug for up to 52 weeks. Clinical response, lesion count, recurrence rate, pain, and quality of life were compared between the two groups. The numerical results are in the latter part of the abstract. This text does not include the part it has read.
What the abstract does not answer remains in the sections and appendices. This text, which does not go beyond that, leaves blanks as they are. Readers may compare the two citations above to determine which sentence in the abstract corresponds to the excerpt cited by the company.
One month later, the stock price was within the middle half of the sample.
The remaining return after subtracting the portion that moves with the overall market is called excess return. Dates are recorded as trading days, counting only the days the stock market is open. In terms of the calendar, 20 trading days are approximately one month. The excess return for the day of the regulatory filing and the following month is presented in the table below.
| Period | Excess return relative to the market | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 5 trading days before the filing | +5.3% | The extent of movement before the filing |
| On the filing date | +357.0% | On the filing date or the first trading day afterward |
| Cumulative over +1 to +5 trading days | +333.0% | One week |
| Cumulative over +1 to +20 trading days | −19.7% | One month |
A bundle of past cases of the same type is called a sample. The position counted from the bottom is expressed as a percentile. The one-month excess return of -19.7% in this case is within the bottom 26% of the 142 cases in the sample, and it is within the lower half.
| Sample scale (20 trading days) | Tenth from the bottom | Fourth from the bottom | Median | Top 25% | Top 10% | This case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excess return | −31.9% | −20.1% | −6.9% | +5.5% | +19.5% | −19.7% |
Half of the sample falls between the two central marks on the chart. One checks the chart to see whether this case lies within or outside the range. The sample collects cases where U.S.-listed companies cited papers in 8-K filings over the past ten years. The company itself is excluded from the sample. The numbers listed here are historical facts, not rules applicable to future cases.
There is one additional case where the same company cited a paper in an 8-K, and it is included in the table below.
| Filing date | Journal of the cited paper | Excess return over one month |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-17 | Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology | −54.4% |
Documents issued by the company after the filing
After the filing date, the company issued three 8-K filings. Only the item numbers are listed. In 8-K filings without titles, the item numbers indicate the type of content. One can determine whether it was an earnings announcement or a contract based on the number. The specific event is read in the original text of each link.
- 2024-03-29 8-K Item 2.02,9.01 — Earnings announcement · Financial statements · Attached documents
- 2024-05-13 8-K Item 2.02, 9.01 — Earnings Announcement · Financial Statements · Attached Documents
- 2024-05-23 8-K Item 3.01 —
What this article does not answer
This article, which reads only abstracts, cannot answer what the paper reviewed, how it was tested, or what it showed. How many times the paper cited by the company has been cited afterward can be verified again through the OpenAlexOpenAlex
Data source · Website citation count. What will be seen next is whether the company's next 8-K again cites the same paper.
Explanation of terms
- 8-K
- A voluntary report submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission when a U.S. listed company has something to inform shareholders. The type is indicated by item numbers such as earnings, contracts, and executive changes. All events in this article come from this document.
- Excess return
- The remainder obtained by subtracting the market's overall return from the stock's return. It is used to observe the company's unique movement after removing the portion attributable to the market's collective rise or fall.
- Trading day
- A date counting only the days when the stock market is open. Since weekends and holidays are excluded, 20 trading days correspond to approximately one calendar month.
- Sample and percentile
- A bundle of past cases of the same type is a sample, and the position from the bottom within it is expressed as a percentile. A percentile of 10 means that nine out of ten cases performed better than this case.
- Abstract
- A summary placed at the beginning of a paper. The author writes in a few sentences what was done, how it was done, and what results were obtained. Without reading the full text, one cannot know the details or limitations of the method.