Pharmaceutical filing citing a Psychiatry Research paper — Tonix Pharmaceuticals, 2024-02-12
Tonix PharmaceuticalsTonix PharmaceuticalsNASDAQ TNXP
Filings SEC · Quote Yahoo cited a paper published in Psychiatry Research in a regulatory filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange CommissionU.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
Regulator · Website as a basis for its claims. The company read the way it wrote the paper and the actual scope of the paper in order. The stock price movement for one month after the filing was compared to past cases of the same type. This is a retrospective judgment written after knowing the results. The paper was read only up to the abstract.
The disclosure wrote the paper in the press release like this
When a U.S. listed company has something to inform shareholders, the report submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission is called 8-K. The item numbers of the document submitted by Tonix Pharmaceuticals on 2024-02-12 were 7.01 Reg FD public · 8.01 other events · 9.01 financial statements · attached documents. The company cited the paper published in Psychiatry Research in the attached press release. The sentence citing the paper, copied verbatim from the original, is as follows.
Psychiatry Res. 2024 (In Press). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psychres.2024.115764 4. Goldstein RB, et al.
What readers should look at first is where the company placed the paper in the press release. Next, it is necessary to determine whether the paper supports the entire company's claim or only a part of it. To answer the latter question, one must read the full paper. This article, which reads only the abstract, cannot answer that.
The scope of the paper mentioned in the abstract is limited to this
The paper title is A phase 3, randomized, placebo-controlled, trial to evaluate the efficacy and safety of bedtime sublingual cyclobenzaprine (TNX-102 SL) in military-related posttraumatic stress disorder and it was published in Psychiatry Research on 2024-02-02. The authors' affiliations are Massachusetts General Hospital · Eloxx Pharmaceuticals (United States) · Tonix Pharmaceuticals (United States) · Boston University. The summary published at the beginning of the paper is called abstract. What this article has read is only up to there. This paragraph was rewritten by a person after filtering a draft written by a machine reading the abstract through numerical comparison, so it is of a different grade from a full-text reading and a verified reading.
A phase 3 trial of cyclobenzaprine administered sublingually before bedtime for patients with post-traumatic stress disorder related to military service. The drug targets multiple receptors associated with sleep, aiming to regulate sleep patterns. Sleep indicators improved steadily from an early stage, but the primary endpoint, symptom scores at week 12, showed no significant difference compared to placebo. Differences were observed in the four-week endpoint and in overall impressions from physicians and patients, with varying responses among patients with shorter trauma durations.
The parts not answered in the abstract remain in the full text and appendices. This article leaves gaps as gaps. Readers are to determine which sentences in the abstract correspond to the cited excerpts by comparing the two citations.
One month later, the stock price was within the middle half of the sample.
The return excluding the portion attributable to market movement is called excess return. Dates are counted in trading days, the days when the stock market is open. In calendar terms, 20 trading days is roughly one month. The excess return on the day of the filing and for the following month are listed in the table below.
| Period | Excess return relative to the market | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 5 trading days before the filing | −1.8% | The extent of movement before the filing |
| On the filing day | +10.7% | On the filing day or the first trading day thereafter |
| Accumulated over +1 to +5 trading days | +11.5% | One week |
| Accumulated over +1 to +20 trading days | −13.2% | One month |
A bundle of past cases of the same type is called a sample. The position counted from the bottom is expressed as a percentile. The one-month excess return of -13.2% in this case is within the bottom 38% of the 142 samples, placing it in the lower half.
| Sample scale (20 trading days) | Tenth from the bottom | Fourth from the bottom | Median | Top 25% | Top 10% | This case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excess return | −31.9% | −20.1% | −6.9% | +5.5% | +19.5% | −13.2% |
Half of the sample falls between the two central marks on the chart. One checks the chart to see whether this case falls inside or outside. The sample collects cases where U.S.-listed companies cited papers in 8-K filings over the past decade. The company itself is excluded from the sample. The numbers listed here are historical facts, not rules applicable to future cases.
There are 23 additional cases where the same company cited papers in 8-K filings, which are listed together in the table below.
| Disclosure date | Journal of the cited paper | Excess return over one month |
|---|---|---|
| 2018-01-22 | PLoS ONE | −15.3% |
| 2020-12-04 | Genome biology | +20.9% |
| 2020-12-23 | Genome biology | +32.1% |
| 2021-11-23 | JCI Insight | −11.5% |
| 2021-12-14 | JCI Insight | −23.9% |
| 2022-01-04 | JCI Insight | −38.1% |
| 2022-01-11 | JCI Insight | −31.8% |
| 2022-03-14 | Nature Structural & Molecular Biology | −9.3% |
Documents issued by the company after the disclosure
Only item numbers are listed for the three 8-K filings issued by the company after the disclosure date. In 8-K filings without titles, item numbers indicate the type of content. Whether it was an earnings announcement or a contract can be identified by the item number. The specific event is read in the original text of each link.
- 2024-02-13 8-K Items 7.01, 8.01, 9.01 — Reg FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- 2024-02-15 8-K Item 5.07 — Results of the Shareholders' Meeting
- 2024-02-27 8-K Item 7.01, 8.01, 9.01 — Reg FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements · Exhibits
What This Article Does Not Answer
Reading only the abstract, this article cannot answer what method the paper used, what it reviewed, and to what extent it demonstrated findings. The number of times the paper cited by the company has been cited afterward can be verified again through the OpenAlexOpenAlex
Data source · Website citation count. What will be seen next is whether the company's next 8-K again cites the same paper.
Glossary
- 8-K
- A voluntary report submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission when a listed company has something to inform its shareholders. The type is indicated by item numbers such as earnings, contracts, and executive changes. All events in this article come from this document.
- Excess return
- The remainder after subtracting the market's overall return from the stock's return. It is used to observe the company's unique movement after removing the portion attributable to the market's collective rise or fall.
- Trading day
- A date counting only the days the stock market is open. Since weekends and holidays are excluded, 20 trading days correspond to approximately one calendar month.
- Sample and percentile
- A bundle of past cases of the same type is a sample, and the position from the bottom within it is expressed as a percentile. A percentile of 10 means that nine out of ten cases performed better than this case.
- Abstract
- A summary placed at the beginning of a paper. The author writes in a few sentences what was done, how it was done, and what results were obtained. Without reading the full text, the details and limitations of the method cannot be known.