Pharmaceutical filing citing Expert Opinion on Drug Discovery paper — Immunic, 2021-07-12
ImmunicImmunicNASDAQ IMUX
Filings SEC · Quote Yahoo cited a paper published in Expert Opinion on Drug Discovery in a regulatory filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange CommissionU.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
Regulator · Website as the basis for its claims. The company read the manner in which it wrote the paper and the actual scope of the paper in sequence. It recorded where the stock price movement over the following month compared to past cases of the same type. This is a retrospective judgment written after knowing the results. The paper was read only up to the abstract.
The disclosure wrote the paper in the press release like this.
When a U.S. listed company has something to inform shareholders, it files a current report with the Securities and Exchange Commission, called 8-K. Immunic filed this document on 2021-07-12, with item numbers 8.01 Other Events and 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits. The company cited a paper published in Expert Opinion on Drug Discovery in the attached press release. The sentence citing the paper, copied verbatim from the original, is as follows.
Retinoic acid-related orphan receptor gamma t (RORγt) inverse agonists/antagonists for the treatment of inflammatory diseases – where are we presently?, Expert Opinion on Drug Discovery. https://doi.org/10.1080/17460441.2021.1948833. [3] Wang, J., Zou, J., Xue, X. et al.
What readers should look at first is where the company placed the paper in the press release. Next, they should determine whether the paper supports the entire company claim or only a part of it. To answer the latter question, one must read the full paper. This article, which only read the abstract, cannot provide an answer.
The scope of the paper discussed in the abstract is limited to this.
The paper title is Retinoic acid-related orphan receptor gamma t (RORγt) inverse agonists/antagonists for the treatment of inflammatory diseases – where are we presently?, and it was published in Expert Opinion on Drug Discovery on 2021-06-30. The authors are affiliated with Immune Regulation (United Kingdom). The summary at the beginning of the paper is called abstract. This article read only up to that point. This paragraph was written by a person after filtering a draft generated by a machine reading the abstract by numerical comparison, and thus differs in quality from a full-text review.
This article is a review summarizing the development process of oral and topical drugs that inhibit the transcription factor RORγt, based on 16 company papers and patents. The article is described as a key regulator of TH17 cells, which cause inflammation, and is highlighted as a target for inflammatory diseases, but many clinical trials have failed. The reason given is that topical drugs showed insufficient efficacy and oral drugs showed safety signals such as thymic lymphoma in animals and elevated liver values in humans. The authors suggest that candidates with different chemical structures could avoid these risks. This is an opinion, not an experimental result.
The abstract does not answer; it remains in the main text and the appendix. This text, which does not go there, leaves the blank as it is. Readers compare the two citations above to determine which sentence in the abstract corresponds to the excerpt cited by the company.
A month later, the stock price was within the middle half of the sample.
The return excluding the portion attributable to market-wide movements is called excess return. Dates are recorded as trading days, counting only the days the stock market is open. In terms of the calendar, 20 trading days are approximately one month. The excess return on the day of the regulatory filing and for the following month are presented in the table below.
| Period | Excess return relative to the market | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 5 trading days before the filing | −1.5% | The extent to which it had already moved before the filing |
| regulatory filing day | +2.3% | filing day or the first trading day thereafter |
| cumulative +1~+5 trading days | −20.5% | one week |
| cumulative +1~+20 trading days | −19.6% | one month |
A bundle of past cases of the same type is called a sample. The position counted from the bottom is expressed as a percentile. The one-month excess return of -19.6% in this case is within the bottom 27% of the 142 samples, placing it in the lower half.
| sample scale (20 trading days) | Tenth from the bottom | Fourth from the bottom | median | top 25% | top 10% | this case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| excess return | −31.9% | −20.1% | −6.9% | +5.5% | +19.5% | −19.6% |
Half of the sample falls between the two middle marks in the table. Check in the table whether this case falls inside or outside that range. The sample consists of cases where U.S. listed companies cited papers in 8-K filings over the past decade. The company itself is excluded from the sample. The numbers listed here are historical facts, not rules to apply to future cases.
Another example of the same company reporting a paper in an 8-K filing is included in the sample below, presented together in the table.
| Filing date | The journal of the reported paper | Excess return in one month |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-04-22 | The Journal of Heart and Lung Transplantation | −22.0% |
After the filing, the company issued this document
Three 8-K filings issued by the company after the filing date are listed with only item numbers. In 8-K filings without titles, the item numbers indicate the type of content, so it is possible to determine whether it was an earnings announcement or a contract. The specific event can be read in the original text of each link.
- 2021-07-19 8-K Item 1.01,9.01 — Material contract execution · Financial statements · Attached documents
- 2021-08-06 8-K Item 2.02,9.01 — Earnings announcement · Financial statements · Attached documents
- 2021-10-15 8-K Item 5.02,9.01 — Officer·Director Changes · Financial Statements·Exhibits
What This Article Does Not Answer
This article, which reads only abstracts, cannot answer what the paper reviewed, how it was done, or what it showed. How often the paper cited by the company was cited afterward can be verified again by the OpenAlexOpenAlex
Data source · Website citation count. What will be seen next is whether the company's next 8-K again cites the same paper.
Glossary
- 8-K
- A spontaneous report submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission when a U.S. listed company has something to inform shareholders. The type is indicated by item numbers such as earnings, contracts, and executive changes. All the events in this article come from this document.
- Excess return
- The remainder after subtracting the overall market return from the stock return. It is used to see the movement of this company alone by removing the portion where the market as a whole rose or fell.
- trading day
- a count of days when the stock market is open. weekends and holidays are excluded, so 20 trading days are about a calendar month.
- sample and percentile
- A bundle of past cases of the same type is a sample, and the position from the bottom within it is expressed as a percentile. A percentile of 10 means that nine out of ten cases performed better than this case.
- abstract
- a summary placed at the beginning of a paper. the author writes in a few sentences what was done, how it was done, and what was found. without reading the full text, details and limitations of the method cannot be known.